Big Aussie Divergence - June 2008

25/06/2008 13:59

24. June, 2008

Hey traders, markets are range bound, no clear trend… So, I am wondering myself “if is worth it to be at the trading desk on the day like this”….USD/JPY broke the resistance line from yesterday and now its dancing around here, so I didn’t open any position. Its interesting that EUR/USD support hold the prices above it…we were right about this one. I must say that the setup of this trade was the best, but we just need to be patient and wait on market to come to us… I will leave this two pairs for now and wait on more data to come.


Today I checked a lot of pairs and right now it seems that AUD/USD could be right pair to trade it in this week.
I chose this pair because of the broken trend line on the daily chart, remember “simple is the best”!! And also because of the huge divergence on RSI indicator, which is showing me a potential move lower in the near term. If you check out the pictures, then you could also see a significant resistance area, 61,8%-76,4% on the 4 hour chart and powerful 76,4% on the hourly chart.

On the 1 hour chart I am focused on the stochastic, where we can see a cross in the overbought zone. We should also have in mind that the prices are in range, so there could be still several crosses before we will se some action on the one of the sides. I am short with very, very small expectations, 1/5 of the positions with stops at 0,9580. Watch level 0,9510, where we could see a powerful break lower, so I will add to the position here and trail my stops lower. The downside targets are open for now.

Tomorrow its holiday here, in our country, so I wont be at my trading desk to update you. See you on Thursday, Grega.

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Analyses are made by

Gregor Horvat
chief executive officer
forex analyst
Capital Forex Group LLC


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